Geopolitical pressure monitor

Iran Conflict x Oil Markets

AI-assisted watchtower for whether crude is likely to rise or fall.

Track live Iran-related headlines, Binance crude and Brent futures, Polymarket probabilities, disruption risk, sanctions pressure, and shipping stress in one place. The model surfaces a directional call, confidence, and the logic behind it.

Current directional signal Bullish oil
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Escalation likely supports higher prices
Confidence 74%

Strait-of-Hormuz risk and retaliation probability outweigh current spare-capacity relief.

Live headlines and analyst notes combined

Market engine

Directional score

Escalation 78
Supply risk 84
Diplomacy 29
Net pressure +41
Oil down Balanced Oil up

Catalyst intake

Live news

Google News RSS refreshes every 5 minutes with Iran, Hormuz, crude, shipping, tanker, and sanctions coverage.

Connecting to live feed

Exchange tape

Binance oil futures

Live CLUSDT crude oil and BZUSDT Brent crude perpetual pricing from Binance's public futures feed.

Waiting for Binance

Prediction tape

Polymarket odds

Active markets matching Strait of Hormuz, Iran, and oil tanker queries, pulled from Polymarket's public Gamma search.

Waiting for Polymarket

AI workspace

Analyst controls

Model output

Gemini analysis

Gemini pending
v1beta/models/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview Waiting for live analysis

Base case remains bullish for oil because market participants usually react fastest to disruption probabilities around shipping lanes and export infrastructure.

    The local signal is still available as a fallback.